What's wrong with A.J. Minter?

What made Minter good in 2022? 

Before we dive into what's plaguing him in 2023, let's look at what made him so effective in 2022. One obvious is that he just didn't give up a lot of hits. Batters hit just .194 against him with a .286 BABIP. 

And it's not like he didn't give up solid contact last year as he was just in the 55th percentile for average exit velocity and 24th percentile in barrel%. But he did have a 34.7% strikeout rate, which was his best mark since a brief showing in 2017. 

His 4-seam fastball, which was 1 MPH faster last year, didn't get hit at all with opponents hitting just 1.52 against the pitch. 

While his barrel% was higher last year, his sweet spot% was just 32.1%. Sweep spot percentage calculates the number of times a batter has a good angle on the ball (between 8 and 32 degrees of launch angle). 

That typically means you're going to be giving up fewer line drives and hard-hit balls. In 2022, he had a groundball% of 39.6% and a flyball% of 27%. Batters only hit a line drive off him 22% of the time. 

Easy differences for Minter in 2023

That leads to one of the easier answers for what's going on with Minter in 2023 -- he's giving up more quality contact. 

While his average exit velocity against is actually lower this year -- as is his max exit velocity -- his sweet spot% is up to 41.5%. That would be by far the highest number of his career. So while he's not giving up the hardest contact, hitters are able to square up his pitches more frequently to get that right launch angle that leads to more hits. 

That's why his BABIP is an insane .392 this year -- almost 100 points above his career average. 

Another easy difference to call out is the fastball velocity being down a tic from 96.6 MPH average to 95.7. The spin rate is still very high, and it's hard to imagine he can't still get outs at 95.7 MPH. 

But batters are hitting .259 against his 4-seam fastball this year -- over 100 points higher than last year; however, that's really more in line with what it's been for his career and 2022 was an outlier. 

The walks up are up a bit -- but not frighteningly so. And he's throwing the change-up a little less (11.7% in 2023 compared to 18.1% in 2022). 

It's the fact hitters are able to get to the sweet spot more often that's really killing Minter -- so why is that happening? 

Could it be pitch movement and location? 

When you see all of the analytics pointing to Minter still being good but the results aren't matching, up you immediately have to think it's either bad luck, missed location, or lack of pitch movement. 

Perhaps it's the combination of all three. 

Let's start with pitch movement because if hitters are getting to the sweet spot more often, that would lead me to believe his pitches aren't moving as much. 

Last year's 4-seam fastball had 12 inches of vertical drop and 6.5 inches of horizontal break. This year those numbers are 12.5 and 7.5. 

There's not much difference there - the 4-seam fastball doesn't really seem to be the problem. Batters have an average hard-hit% of just 27.8 against Minter's fastball in 2023 and the xBA on that pitch is .196. 

A lot of people have pointed to the cutter as a reason for the struggles, but it's not because of a lack of movement. Last year his cutter had 29 inches of vertical drop and 5.1 inches of horizontal break compared to 30 and 5.4 this year. 

And while it's believed the cutter is his money pitch, it was by far his worst offering last year with a run value of 3 and batters hitting .338 against that pitch. 

So what about that location? 

You can see from the heat map that he's all over the place with his fastball this year and the cutter seems to be getting thrown up in the zone maybe a tab bit more. 

For me, AJ is best when he's tunneling that fastball away from righties and that cutter down-and-in to righties. It's really difficult to be ready for 96 on the black away (from a righty) and 90 down-and-in when both pitches come out of the same slot and look exactly the same. 

Breaking it down game-by-game

Minter was great to start the season and looked like his dominant self. One of the possible factors of his ineffectiveness is the fact he was worked too much early on with all the bullpen injuries. 

Bullpen arms often get worn out and that's why their life span as an effective big leaguer can be short. 

Minter has thrown the 24th most innings of any reliever in baseball over the last three years with 141.1. That list includes a lot of guys ahead of him who are multi-inning relievers. 

But let's focus on what has happened since April 21 when he blew the first of two games against the Astros. 

April 21 (Murphy catching): pop out, single, line out, home run, line out. 

On the single, it was actually a really good cutter down-and-in to Mauricio Dubon. It was hit at a launch angle of 1 degree at 85.4 MPH and just happen to find a hole. 

The home run to Yordan Alvarez was a 3-2 cutter perfectly placed on the outside corner. Perhaps it could have been lower, and in hindsight, the Braves should have put him on after the balk that sent to Duban to second and taken their chances with a struggling Abreu. 

Although, Abreu got a cutter right down the middle that AJ is lucky it found Kevin Pillar's glove. 

April 23 (Tromp catching): single, strikeout, walk, strikeout, and single. 

The single to Kyle Tucker was a 4-seam fastball that he didn't get in. It was up, but over the plate too much and was hit 96.3 MPH at a 4-degree launch angle. 

Interesting that he went to the change-up in the next at-bat and got Jeremy Pena to strike out. 

The walk to David Hensley is what cost him in this one. He fell behind 2-0 and then threw the cutter down the middle twice for a swing strike and foul ball to even the count. 

He tried to go that change-up again and missed away, and then threw a great cutter down-and-in that the Hensley fouled off before walking on a 4-seam that was well below the zone. 

Again, he threw 3 change-ups to Jake Meyers to get another strikeout. 

Tromp stuck with the change-up against Julks and got ahead 1-2. Minter missed high-and-away with the fastball and then Julks fought off a really good change-up for the go-ahead single on a ball hit 77.5 MPH with a launch angle of 10 degrees. 

Really just some bad luck for Minter in this one. But it's interesting to note that with Tromp catching, he threw the change-up 11 times in this outing. 

That's a quarter of the change-ups he's thrown all season -- and he's yet to throw a change-up to a lefty this year. 

April 26 (Tromp catching): strikeout, fly out, strikeout

Only one cutter in seven pitches to Jon Berti for the first strikeout. Segura flew out on a first-pitch fastball up at 96 MPH. And it was four fastballs away that got Garrett Hampson to strikeout and end the game.

April 27 (Tromp catching: single, strikeout, double, single, strikeout, single, and single. 

Fell behind 2-0 to Luis Arraez, but made a great 2-1 pitch just off the plate away that Arraez hit 90.4 MPH at a 10-degree angle for a single the other way. 

Made some great pitches to Soler for the strikeout, sequencing just how he'd like. 

The double by Segura was a cutter right down the middle of the plate that got smacked, as it should. 

Gurriel singled on a 4-seam away that probably caught too much of the plate for a 1-1 pitch. 

He got Nick Fortes to strike out on the change-up. 

The Avisail Garcia at-bat is one that bugs me. The proper sequencing for Minter to righties is 4-seam away and cutter down-and-in. 

He throws a perfect fastball on the outside edge for strike one and then Tromp calls for a cutter away in the same spot. Minter perfectly hits his spot but because Garcia's eyes are out there he's ready and drives it up the middle. If you throw that cutter in to Garcia, it's like a swing and miss or easy groundout. 

That one was just a ball pitch call by Tromp. Minter executed the pitch, but it was just a bad pitch selection. 

Then Jazz Chisholm laced a single on another cutter right down the middle before Minter was pulled. 

May 1 (Murphy catching): strikeout, line out, homer, line out. 

Minter started Pete Alonso with fastballs up-and-in to get the count 2-2 and then finished him off with a cutter down below the zone. 

Again, with Jeff McNeil he and Murphy went fastball to get ahead and then, with an 0-2 count, threw three cutters before McNeil hit a soft liner to shortstop on a cutter down. 

Everything was up to Eduardo Escobar, who finally caught up to a 96.3 MPH fastball up-and-in for the home run. Not sure why Murphy didn't call for that cutter down again. 

He threw three straight cutters to Brett Baty and the third one was left right down the middle and scorched at 106.2 MPH, but luckily right to Ronald Acuña Jr. 

May 3 (Murphy catching): strikeout, line out, fly out

He was able to get ahead of Jorge Soler with some cutters and then tried to put him away with a fastball and the change-up before getting him to swing-and-miss at a cutter down. 

It was fastballs and change-ups away to Gurriel, which was an interesting decision as it was a fastball away that Gurriel drove up the middle a week prior. But Minter got him to hit a weak liner to shortstop on a change-up that was left up but off the plate. 

He left a cutter up to Xavier Edwards but the young speedster flew out to right. 

May 4 (Murphy catching): fly out, strikeout, single, strikeout

The fastball location was not great against Bryan De La Cruz as he missed badly with it to start the at-bat and then threw two over the heart of the plate. Luckily De La Cruz just missed the third pitch and flew out to right. 

He continued to pump fastballs over the heart of the plate against Peyton Burdick in a 3-run game, but got him to strike out showing that the heater still has life. 

But it wasn't enough to get one right down the middle by Berti, who singled up the middle. 

He went back to the cutter and change-up down to get Soler to strikeout. 

It was pretty clear in this one with a 3-run lead that Murphy just wanted Minter to pump fastballs in there until a runner got on. 

May 6 (Murphy catching): strikeout, strikeout, pop out

This was his first game back in a setup role with Raisel Iglesias returning. 

It was cutters and a change-up down in the zone to Anthony Santander to start the at-bat before putting him away with a 96.3 MPH fastball up. 

Santander had killed the Braves in that series and it was only the second time he struckout against a Braves pitcher. 

He probably should have struckout Gunner Henderson on three pitches -- but umpires be crazy. Instead, he sequenced a fastball in to the lefty with a cutter away to get him swinging. 

Minter fell behind to lefty Adam Frazier and then threw a fastball down the middle that Frazier fouled off. And then he got him to pop up on a cutter up-and-in (not sure that's the location they wanted). 

May 9 (Murphy catching): groundout, double, walk, ground out, single, strikeout. 

This is the game that really irritated me, because of the use of Minter in a blowout game when the guy has already been overworked to start the year. 

He threw four cutters to Masataka Yoshida and three of them were up, but he got a groundout. 

Justin Turner doubled on a cutter down that wasn't terrible, but probably should have been inside more. It might have also been a good idea to go back to the change-up he whiffed at earlier in the at-bat after just missing with a fastball in. 

He threw nothing but fastballs to Rafael Devers, with four of them just missing away. Devers isn't going to hit a 6-run homer there, you can't walk him. 

Jarren Duran grounded out on a cutter down-and-away on the first pitch. 

Enrique Hernandez singled on a really good cutter down-and-in -- that happens sometimes. Again, probably should have been more in and off the plate in a 2-2 count. 

He threw three fastballs to Bobby Dalbec and then got him to swing-and-miss on a change-up down. 

May 10 (Travis d'Arnaud catching): walk, walk, strikeout

After throwing 20-plus pitches in a blowout game the night before, Brian Snitker decided to use Minter again the next day and Minter clearly wasn't very sharp. 

To be fair, the first pitch he threw to Jarren Duran had every bit of the strikezone and was called a ball. Two others were close, but it was deemed a four-pitch walk and he threw him nothing but fastballs. 

He fell behind to Triston Casas 2-0 with the fastball and then threw four cutters with two of them missing down-and-away from the lefty for another walk. 

With the righty Connor Wong up he went back to nothing but fastballs and got him to swing-and-miss at 97 MPH up for the strikeout before exiting. 

May 13 (Murphy catching): pop out, single, single, single, fly out, strikeout

Danny Jansen popped out on a fastball right down the middle. 

Kevin Kiermaier singled on a cutter away from the lefty that should have been more down. It was hist just 71 MPH with a 33-degree angle, but fell in front of Eddie Rosario. 

George Spring got a first-pitch cutter down the middle and laced it up the middle. 

Minter then fell behind Bo Bichette 2-0 with missed fastballs. On the fifth pitch of the at-bat, he threw a cutter middle down that got crushed at 108.7 MPH -- a pitch that should have been down-and-in. 

He fell behind Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as well and he put a charge into a fastball away, but it was just a flyout. 

The first three pitches to Daulton Varsho were really good as he got ahead 0-2 and Varsho fouled off a really good cutter of the plate down-and-away. Varsho fouled off a couple of more and had two really good takes before missing a cutter middle-down that should have been hit hard. 

What's the verdict? 

As you might imagine, it's a combination of several things -- bad luck, missed locations, and poor pitch selection. 

One thing is pretty evident from going through all of these games, if the cutter is left over the plate it's going to get hit hard. It's not like that Kenley Jansen cutter that he can throw right down the middle and guys just can't make contact. 

When Minter is having success with the cutter it's when he's able to hit that spot down-and-in to righties and down-and-away to lefties. 

That's all predicated on him having good fastball command on the edges and up in the zone, which he's done a decent job of. 

And the change-up is probably a pitch he should feature a little more -- especially against righties. There has yet to be a hard-hit ball against his change-up this year in 7 batted ball events (small sample). 

But even last year, batters hit just .102 against his change-up with a 10% hard hit rate. 

If he has the confidence in it, that could also be an effective pitch to run in on lefties either off that fastball up-and-in or cutter down-and-away. 

The good thing is, there is still an arsenal here for Minter to be a dominant reliever. 

But it all comes down to the cutter location. He's missing over the heart of the plate and up far too often, and when he does it's getting hit hard. 

Once that happens, we'll see Minter get back to being that lights out closer he has been in the past.