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Flames Have a Jonathan Huberdeau Problem

Originally posted on The Hockey Writers
By Rupert McDonald | Last updated 4/20/24

So much for a bounce-back season. When Jonathan Huberdeau first arrived in Calgary after an offseason trade with the Florida Panthers, fans believed that the team was in as good of shape if not better to contend for a Stanley Cup. On paper, that certainly looked to be the case. Not only were Huberdeau and Nazem Kadri believed to be good replacements for Matthew Tkachuk and Johnny Gaudreau, but several others that remained on the roster were coming off of career years.

The Stanley Cup aspirations the Flames had never came close in 2022-23, as they missed the playoffs entirely. Huberdeau’s play had a large part in that, as he put up just 15 goals and 55 points through 79 games, a far cry from the 115 points he had the season prior.

While many fans were worried, there was hope that a big part of his struggles had to do with Darryl Sutter, who wound up being fired due to his relationship deteriorating with several players. With Sutter out and Ryan Huska in, a bounce-back season felt in store for a player who just a year ago was viewed by plenty as one of the most offensively-gifted forwards in the league.

Huberdeau’s Numbers Dropped Even Further

If the 2023-24 season has proven anything, it’s that Sutter wasn’t to blame for Huberdeau’s poor play. Though the 30-year-old did play significantly better over the second half, he still regressed once again, finishing with 12 goals and 52 points in 81 games. If it wasn’t clear before, it is now; this contract is a disaster.

This season marked the first year of Huberdeau’s massive eight-year, $84 million extension he signed prior to the 2022-23 campaign. His $10.5 million average annual value (AAV) cap hit, which doesn’t expire until the end of the 2030-31 season, is the 10th highest in the NHL.

Given the amount of term left on the deal, there is simply nothing the Flames can do with him. Even with some major salary retention, it is almost impossible to imagine any team in the league would be willing to add him with that many years remaining given just how much he has regressed since arriving in Calgary.

As far as a buyout is concerned, it would make little sense. If the Flames were to go that route this summer, he would remain with a cap hit of just under $8 million AAV for each of the next two seasons. That number would then jump to $10.4 million for the following two seasons, decrease back to just under $8 million for the 2028-29 season, and hop back up to $10.4 million in 2029-30. The 2030-31 season would then carry a $5.9 million cap hit, before dropping to roughly $900,000 until the end of 2037-38. It is a deal that simply cannot be bought out, no matter how bad this current regime would like to do so.

Flames Praying Huberdeau Can Turn Things Around

The only thing the Flames organization and its fans can hope for is that somehow, Huberdeau is able to find a way to get his game back on track. It doesn’t seem at all likely based on what he has done in each of the past two seasons, though absolutely no one could have predicted him falling off like this, either.

Many are quick to suggest that he has been hindered by no longer playing with Aleksander Barkov, but that narrative is false. In his career-best 115-point season, Huberdeau played on a line with Sam Bennett and Anthony Duclair, players whose point totals from that same season he surpassed with ease. It is a drop-off that is flat-out impossible to explain, and one that Huberdeau himself is probably trying to piece together.

As mentioned, Huberdeau was able to play better throughout the second half of the season. In the new year, he wound up recording eight goals and 36 points in 45 games. While still not nearly up to par for his salary, that translates to a 65-point pace over an 82-game schedule. Perhaps he can continue that into next season, and at least help soften the blow on this contract. Either way, the Flames are going to have some massive headaches moving forward with this deal on the books for a long time ahead.

This article first appeared on The Hockey Writers and was syndicated with permission.

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